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Notarial post: US 2012 elections prediction

Monday, November 5, 2012, 09:41 AM
A fellow researcher has just sent me his prediction for tomorrow's elections in the U.S. based on Twitter data.

According to his model Obama will get 50.71% of the popular vote but 67.35% of the electoral votes.

A number of states are key in this election and, according to the model of this researcher, Obama will win by a tight margin in all of them:

  • Colorado: Obama (53.33%)
  • Florida: Obama (50.97%)
  • New Hampshire: Obama (53.75%)
  • Ohio: Obama (51.39%)
  • Pennsylvania: Obama (54.08%)
  • Virginia: Obama (52.41%)
Personal comment: I personally believe that results for Obama are slightly overestimated by this model and those tight victories could very well be tight loses...

We'll see tomorrow anyway.

If any of you want to contact the original author please send me an e-mail or contact me at Twitter: @PFCdgayo.

Update (Nov. 6th): A brief description of the way in which such results were obtained can be found at arXiv.


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